Text: Paul M H Buvarp
Photography: Caroline Hargreaves
It is not without slight reservation that I submit this discourse into a long string of prophesies foretelling the fate of Israel; I am in titanic company. Nevertheless, the thesis that I present to you here is not so much a prediction as an issue. It is not mere prophesy, it is understanding. The Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has declared that evidence for global warming is "unequivocal” (Solomon, et al. 5) and that it is "very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” (Solomon, et al. 10) I postulate that global warming will, if it is not dealt with in time, greatly exacerbate the issue of water stress in the Mediterranean Middle-East region, in turn inflaming the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a catastrophic level.
The question of global warming affecting world politics is one of the most important questions of the day. Nothing has ever been more consequential than human effects on climate change. It is critical that this issue is discussed, debated and mitigated now, before it is too late. I will first briefly touch upon how global warming affects climate to encourage drought, especially in the region at hand. Next I will describe recent and current issues concerning water in Israel, before I finally land upon the purpose of the article: prognosis. Using recent findings from the IPCC Work Groups, I will detail predictions made by leading scientists in the field and comment on the political consequences of these. Global warming affects climate on many levels and in many ways. Al Gore sums up the basics of the problem in his influential book Earth in the Balance:
“Many scientists are worried that as the polar regions warm up faster than the tropics and the temperature differences between the two get smaller, these ocean currents, which are driven in large part by those differences, may slow down or seek a new equilibrium. If the circulatory pattern changes, the climate pattern will also change: some regions will get more rain, others less; some areas will get warmer, others colder.” (Gore 101)
Thus, global warming is a rather variable phenomenon in terms of consequences, and while some regions will experience one set of effects, another region may experience a different set. This is already taking place. Scientists have already begun "reporting a general drying out of the land and spread of desertification in the Mediterranean region” (Abbott, Rogers, Sloboda 15); so the effects are, even now, observable. And it is not limited to one area of the world either; the problem is global in every meaning of the word. In fact, "one in six countries in the world face food shortages because of severe droughts that could become semi-permanent as a result of climate change.” (Abbott, Rogers, Sloboda 15) Along with crop failure, already existing water-shortage in Israel will provide an unprecedented challenge to the region and the world.
Water shortage is a large problem in the region. As early as 2000, Israel’s then retiring Water Commissioner, Meir Ben Meir, commented gravely that "if people remain thirsty for water, then we shall doubtless face war.” (Welsh) And people have remained thirsty for water. Zemah Ishai, Water Commissioner for Israel in 1990, has been quoted calling the shortage of water in the Gaza Strip a "catastrophe.” (Gore 111) This is of special significance because the division between Palestinians and Israelis poses a serious dilemma: "both populations rely on access to many of the same water sources.” (Abbott, Rogers, Sloboda 37) In times of heightened conflict, which, regrettably, are not rare in the region, Israel holds domination over much of the fresh water that the Palestinian territories need. However, other factors also pose problems for water sustainability.
News media like the New York Times and Time Magazine reported, in the fall of 2002, that Israel was protecting its water sources from other countries as well. "Israel has said it takes a "grave view" of Lebanon's plan to pipe water to southern villages from the Wazzani Springs,” (Water Dispute With Israel) the New York Times wrote. The Wazzani Springs are connected to a tributary of the Jordan River which is an important source of water for the Israelis. This marks a considerable development on the issue of fresh-water scarcity and is a warning of severe conflicts to come if nothing is done.
It is remarkable, however, that Israel fails to realize that drought and lack of water in the region is not an Israeli problem; it is a regional, if not global problem. If Lebanon was to run dry, Israel would face very serious humanitarian duties. And given this circumstance, if these humanitarian implications were not fulfilled, indeed, perhaps even if they were fulfilled, Israel would in addition be adversely affected by regional civil disturbance. As the Israeli official remarked in 2000, water scarcity will surely bring about war. And the future does not look bright. If the status quo looks troubling, then what is ahead will look disastrous. The IPCC is currently, at the time of writing, preparing to release the Fourth Assessment Report. Material from this report has been published on the internet already, under the individual working groups that contribute to the report. I draw the predictions mostly from these sources.
First of all, temperatures will increase. Even though the temperature increase is more heightened in the polar regions, the mediterranean will not go unaffected. For West Asia, the IPCC has estimated that temperatures are likely to increase by between 1.06°C and 1.53°C during the period between 2010 and 2039. This is under the lowest future trajectory emissions. For the more bleak prospective, under the highest emissions, the temperature is likely to increase, in the same period of time, between 1.26°C and 1.55°C. Between 2070 and 2099, the mildest projected temperature increase will be between 2.7°C and 3.2°C. The worst-case scenario means an increase between 5.1°C and 6.3°C. (Cruz, et al. 480, Table 10.5)
Also, alarmingly, precipitation in the region will decrease. The period of 2080 to 2099, compared to the period of 1980 to 1999, will suffer an annual average loss of precipitation amounting to between 20% and 30%. And to dispel any doubt on the matter, every single one of the 21 models used, predicted that there would definitely be a decrease in the annual precipitation of the region. (Christensen, et al. 883, Fig. 11.9)
What follows from these two conditions (an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation) is that water will become less available. "Decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature... have been reported to increase water shortage, particularly in parts of Asia where water resources are already under stress from growing water demands and inefficiencies in water use.” (Cruz, et al. 477) [italics added for emphasis] So it would seem that the problems Israel is dealing with now will only get worse with global warming. More specifically, according to the IPCC, "in Lebanon, the annual net usable water resources will likely decrease by 15% in response to a general circulation model (GCM) estimated under doubled CO2 climate.” (Cruz, et al. 483) Israel is not alone. In fact, quite the opposite: "extreme drought, during which agriculture becomes impossible, could affect about a third of the planet by the end of the century.” (Abbott, Rogers, Sloboda 15)
With such bleak prospects it is easy to draw the line to apocalypse. Lack of basic human needs, like water, doubtless leads to conflict. Already now, Israel and the surrounding regions are experiencing a troubling lack of water, and with global warming, the situation is not likely to get better. If it comes to it, Israel has already shown that it will not share (ie, with Lebanon). It is likely that with drought, the largest impact will be on the Palestinians. Two populations sharing the same resources, especially two populations with such a troubled disposition toward each other, will have difficulty when wells dry up. In the coming century, what we are looking at is an explosive development in the conflict on both a humanitarian and political level.
ENDNOTES:
Abbott, Chris, Paul Rogers and John Sloboda. Beyond Terror. London: Rider, 2007.
Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr and P. Whetton. ”Chapter 11: Regional Climate Projections.” Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. 2 Feb. 2007. 9 Nov. 2007 <http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter11.pdf>
Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh. ”Chapter 10: Asia.” Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 6 Apr. 2007. 9 Nov. 2007 <http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter10.pdf>
Gore, Al. Earth in the Balance. London: Earthscan, 2007.
”Middle East: Lebanon: Water Dispute With Israel.” New York Times. 8 Oct. 2002. 11 Nov. 2007 <http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9905E4D7103BF93BA35753C1A9649C8B63>
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) “Summary for Policymakers.” Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. 2 Feb. 2007. 9 Nov. 2007 <http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf>
Welsh, Paul. “Water conflict in Middle East.” BBC News. 2 June 2000. 9 Nov. 2007 <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/764142.stm>